More tricks than treats in the weather department?

A prolonged dry period that lasted much of September into October was finally broken by a 4-day stretch with measurable rain each day from Friday through Tuesday. We have a couple of dry and pleasant days to end the week before another wet system arrives this weekend. Anyone with children or Memphis Tigers football tickets (or both) has a keen interest in the forecast, particularly Saturday!

The system that arrives this weekend will originate from our southwest, over the southern plains. As low pressure organizes, it will draw moist air north from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid-South region. The low will approach the area Saturday with a rainy pattern leading the way, spreading into the Mid-South early in the day. Rain will continue throughout the day with some brief periods of heavy precipitation possible. The chance of thunderstorms will be minimal as unstable air will generally remain to the south of the metro. No severe weather is expected and total rainfall by early evening could be as much as an inch.

The severe weather outlook for Saturday indicates a Marginal Risk of severe storms along the Gulf coast with a general risk of thunderstorms as far north as the metro. Being on the edge of the general risk, very little thunder is expected in the metro.

The NWS rainfall forecast for Friday night and Saturday indicate a widespread event with 1/2″ or more expected area-wide.

As for Saturday evening, models still differ a bit on what we can expect. Given the tendencies and trends of the models the past several days, the most likely outcome at this point is for the steadiest rain to move out during the late afternoon with scattered, lighter showers continuing into the evening. The GFS (American) model, shown below, best captures this scenario as low pressure lingers to our southwest. The European model moves the precipitation out a little faster with less lingering rain behind the main band, thus producing a drier evening. (We’ll root for the Tigers and the Euro model!)

The GFS model shows the location of low pressure at 7pm Saturday and precipitation accumulation between 7pm-1am. Of the models we use, this is the wettest during this evening time period.

Most models indicate a chance of showers, though much lower, continuing into Sunday as low pressure moves out of the area and a trailing upper level disturbance pushes the entire system east. By Monday, we should be back to dry and pleasant fall weather for a few days.

Finally, let this serve as your reminder that Daylight Savings Time ends on Saturday night! Be sure to “fall back” Saturday evening when you retire for the night. I’m sure we’ll all appreciate the extra hour of sleep!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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