Summer has definitely arrived in the Mid-South as temperatures are now consistently rising into the 90s each day. We’ve also seen dewpoints rise to mid-summer levels, pushing the heat index above 100 degrees each afternoon. Be sure you are taking precautions against the heat – drinking water, checking on the young and old, and avoiding it if possible!
(A side note: today is the 37th anniversary of the hottest day on record in Memphis! July 13, 1980 saw the mercury rise to 108 degrees and was smack in the middle of the longest stretch of 100-degree days the city has ever seen, reaching 15 days!)
With the increased heat and humidity came a few popcorn showers the past couple of days. Unfortunately (if you want dry weather a little longer), rain chances will increase even further heading into the weekend as a front sags south. An upper level trough develops over the eastern U.S. in response to a building ridge of high pressure to the west, placing the region in northwest flow that promotes the passage of upper level disturbances. All of this adds up to: 1) slightly cooler temps due to increased cloud cover, 2) continuing high humidity, 3) higher rain chances, but 4) “marginal” severe weather chances.
For those trying to plan outdoor events, I believe the best chance of thunderstorms, when a few could contain gusty wind as represented by the level 1 “Marginal Risk” of severe weather donated above, will be late Friday afternoon into the evening, and mainly north of the city. As shown by the afternoon run of the high-resolution NAM model below, an area of storms may fire up to our north and head towards the Memphis area late in the afternoon, but this model believes it could quickly fall apart heading into the evening.
Saturday could also see scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the highest likelihood will be during peak heating roughly south of I-40, or mainly north MS. Don’t plan any outdoor activities the next couple of days without a “plan B” however. By Sunday, we should see a more northerly component to the wind as the front washes out just to our south, resulting in a low chance of precipitation and perhaps SLIGHTLY lower dewpoints. Temperatures this weekend will likely peak near 90 degrees each day.
As we head into next week, indications are that the ridge to our west shown in the upper level map above will build east, suppressing precipitation chances and causing temperatures to rise once again, back into the lower to mid 90s. More summertime weather as we work our way through the “dog days!” For the routinely updated, human-generated MWN Forecast, check out our mobile apps linked below or click here.
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist
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