August is a wrap, as is meteorological summer (which we weather folks use to define seasons in 3-month blocks; summer being June-August). Our full recap of the month will be out later this week, but it’s honestly not a month I will miss much. While temperatures could have been a lot worse (they were only slightly above normal for the month) we did hit 98° or higher five times and 100° twice. August 28 was the first time this year we hit the century mark, and the next day was the second. But those days were achieved with low humidity and no heat advisories (which require a heat index of 105° or higher). We had a few days mid-month that had brutally high dewpoints and hot temperatures, resulting in Excessive Heat Warnings (or what I like to call #StupidHot).
So the heat was expected. It was the rapid development of drought that I disliked the most. Heading into August, well-tended Bermuda yards were green and lush from the right combination of heat and rainfall this summer, but 4 weeks later, everything was brown that wasn’t artificially watered (well) and some leaves were turning brown and dropping from the trees. Most of the area saw under 1/2″ of rain through the 28th, resulting in moderate drought for much of the metro and extreme drought not far to our south. The Drought Monitor (shown below as of August 27) categorizes drought conditions from D0 to D4. Note the D0-D1 for all of the area and D3-4 to our south and east.
Everything changed though starting on the 29th as Gulf moisture made it back into the region and a slow-moving front sinking south from the Ohio Valley brought widespread thunderstorms with very heavy rain on Thursday and Friday, followed by more scattered heavy rains over the weekend. Most areas locally saw at least an inch of rain and many areas got well over two inches the past few days. it’s a good start to alleviating the drought, but headed into fall, it likely won’t matter to lawns, flora and fauna as much as if it had fallen in August.
So what do we see in the forecast that might provide some hope that the summer of 2024 is nearing an end? First, we look at the calendar, which is now showing September, and the average temperatures for the month, which trend down fairly quickly. Average highs fall from 90° right now t the low 80s by the end of the month. Average low temperatures drop to near 60° by the end of the month. I think we’re ready for 80s and 60s and a little pumpkin spice!
Beyond climatology, the forecast for this week is not bad. More rain chances on Wednesday/Thursday, but after tomorrow, cooler air also arrives. In fact, next weekend (not shown in the forecast below) could see highs in the upper 70s, which is almost 10° below normal, and that is with full sunshine! Sign me up for out-the-door temperatures in the morning in the upper 50s!
Beyond that, the week 2 temperature outlook also calls for the potential for temperatures slightly below normal. That could put highs in the mid 80s or so, which is still pretty decent for September!
So all in all, it appears temperatures well into the 90s might be in the rearview mirror for this year. I certainly can’t rule out reaching 90° or a tough higher yet this month, and there will probably be some muggy days. But as the days get shorter, and fronts star progressing farther south as northern areas get well into fall, hot days should be more the exception than the rule. Time to look forward to fall!
—-
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist
