Category: severe weather

Severe Weather Awareness 2018: SKYWARN Spotters and Social Media Reporting

February 25, 2018

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Erik Proseus

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severe weather, skywarn, SWAW

Though severe weather often occurs within a defined “season” in the spring to early summer (plus a secondary “season” in the fall), as we saw on February 24, 2018, severe storms can strike during any month of the year at any time of the day or night. When severe thunderstorms threaten, the National Weather Service…
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March arrives like a lion – details on potential severe weather

February 28, 2017

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

As we close out what will likely be the warmest February on record, March appears to be coming in like a lion as severe weather potential exists mainly early on Wednesday morning (March 1). A strong cold front will plow into a very warm, unstable, and moist airmass that resides across the eastern U.S. A…
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Warm February ends wet; TN Severe Weather Awareness Week

February 25, 2017

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

With four days left in the month, February is currently ranked as the warmest on record in Memphis (55.1°, which is a full 10° above the monthly average). Despite much cooler weather this weekend, we are projecting that the month will end as the warmest since records began in 1875, as the unusual warmth returns…
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Waterlogged Mid-South begins to dry out, and a little commentary

March 14, 2016

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, event recap, flooding, severe weather

Recap of the past week What an amazing weather week! The stage was set with daily record rainfall amounts on Wednesday and Thursday as nearly 8″ of rain fell on the city, creating flash flooding scenarios, filling tributaries, and saturating the ground. That was followed by additional rounds of rainfall to end the week that…
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Changes to severe weather products coming, including Impact-Based Warnings

March 23, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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severe thunderstorms, severe weather, SPC, tornado, tornado warnings

There are several recent and upcoming changes to severe weather products issued by both SPC and local National Weather Service (NWS) offices, including Memphis, that you need to be aware of. SPC Convective Outlooks (effective date: October 2014) We’ve talked about the changes made last October to SPC’s Day 1-3 convective outlooks in a previous…
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New severe weather outlook categories roll out

October 22, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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education, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, storm prediction center, tornado

Beginning up to eight days ahead of potential severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a part of NOAA/NWS and the worldwide leaders in severe weather prediction, begins issuing convective outlooks (a.k.a. “risk areas”) for the possibility of severe storms. For many years, these outlooks have included a “general thunderstorm” area, as well as Slight,…
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Join us for a “Severe Weather Roundtable” Google+ video Hangout #wxchat

October 15, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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hangout, severe weather

Secondary severe weather season is quickly approaching and, in fact, the southeast U.S. (where secondary season is centered) has just experienced a regional severe weather event. It is a good time to bring severe weather preparedness and education back into the forefront. To that end, on Thursday night, October 16, at 9pm MemphisWeather.net will host…
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Storm Prediction Center revises severe weather outlook categories

August 17, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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education, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, storm prediction center, tornado

Beginning up to eight days ahead of potential severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a part of NOAA/NWS and the worldwide leaders in severe weather prediction, begins issuing outlooks (sometimes called risk areas) for the probability of severe storms. For many years, these outlooks have included a “general thunderstorm” area, as well as Slight,…
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Evening update on tonight’s severe storm potential

April 3, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

UPDATED Thursday, 9:15pm: The Storm Prediction Center has dropped the Moderate Risk, but the entire Mid-South is still in a Slight Risk of severe weather overnight. The prime reason for the Moderate Risk was due to the possibility of supercells late this afternoon and evening that posed a hail/tornado risk. Those are obviously not going…
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Storms, and then more (severe) storms

April 2, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, tornado

A setup favoring multiple rounds of thunderstorms is in place across the region as the Mid-South shifts into severe weather season with calendar changing to April. Let’s start with today. Atmospheric Setup A couple of ingredients are depicted below, the first (dewpoint) indicates plenty of low-level moisture across the southern Plains and Mid-South streaming in…
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Details on possible severe weather tonight – March 28 #memstorm

March 28, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather, video

6:25pm UPDATE: A Severe T’storm Watch has been issued until 2am for all of northwest MS, including all metro counties, as well as Fayette County in west TN (map below). Shelby County is NOT included in the watch as the cold front has inched down about to I-40 and the risk of severe weather is…
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Warmer weather means spring storms and a chance of severe weather

March 26, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather, spring, thunderstorms

Following freezing temps metro-wide this morning, nothing near that cold is in the extended forecast that goes into early April. Thus we will assume that winter is finally retreating! Even “well below normal” temperatures at this point will have a hard time reaching 32 degrees assuming we don’t approach it in the next week. So, we…
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First Day of Winter, or Severe Weather Awareness Day? Be prepared today!

December 21, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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damaging wind, preparation, severe weather, tornado

UPDATE – 12:40pm Saturday A Tornado Watch has been issued for the Memphis metro until 8pm. SPC says that within the Tornado Watch area, there is a 50% chance of 2 or more tornadoes, 40% chance of an EF-2+ tornado, and a 60% chance of 10 or more high wind events. Map (showing radar at…
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Halloween Eve forecast update: Tricks… or treats?

October 30, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

Seems there is a holiday or great importance tomorrow… everyone with children want to know if they will be able to trick or treat! This is our 3rd blog in 3 days on the Halloween storm system that seems to be bringing a bag of tricks with it. I’ll try and provide more specific impacts…
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Why you should heed Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

June 4, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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severe weather, tornado, tornado warnings

Last Friday morning, a brief tornado touched down in central Tipton County, TN, about 4 miles northwest of Covington. Two homes sustained significant damage and a shop was destroyed. In addition, there were downed trees and a grain bin was overturned. The National Weather Service rated the tornado an EF-1 with approximate wind of 95…
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Severe storms possible this afternoon & evening

April 27, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southern half of west TN, southeastern half of AR, and north MS in a Slight Risk this afternoon and evening, indicating an elevated threat of severe weather, including in the Memphis metro. The timing for potential severe weather will be from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. This threat…
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Another potential round of severe weather on Thursday evening

April 16, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

One week after our last round of storms, which was expected to bring high round and isolated tornadoes, another squall line scenario is in the forecast for Thursday evening. Last week’s front moved through slowly, with thunder for several hours overnight Wednesday night and rain much of the day Thursday. This week’s front will be…
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Wednesday update on severe weather in the metro tonight

April 10, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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damaging wind, severe weather

Tornado Watches have been issued for most of Arkansas except the Ozarks, southeast MO north to St. Louis, and much of southern IL as the much-anticipated and discussed spring storm system marches towards the Mid-South. This will be a brief update to yesterday’s blog with a “final call” on what to expect in the metro.…
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Update on potential severe weather Wednesday night

April 9, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

Severe weather remains a concern Wednesday night for much of the area. Though models are getting very close to agreeing on the main concepts, fine scale details are still to be determined. Below is a probability map showing the chance of severe weather on Wednesday and Wednesday night, as issued by the Storm Prediction Center.…
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Mid-South severe weather chances on Wednesday night

April 8, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, severe weather

As we blogged on Saturday, the Mid-South is under the gun for severe weather conditions on Wednesday night. Multiple days of warm southerly wind and temperatures at or above 70 degrees (in fact, we could near 80 on Tuesday and Wednesday) will set the stage as a strong cold front pushes through the region late…
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