Category: commentary

Return of warmth brings a risk of severe storms, and a few words to close out 2022

December 31, 2022

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, forecast discussion, severe weather

Another year with overall above average temperatures and precipitation is wrapping up, though this month will end up slightly cooler than average, but marked by large temperature swings. It’s also been wet this month with nearly 6 inches of rain. The major cold spell that marked the days leading up to and through the Christmas…
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Severe storms rumble through the Mid-South early Monday

October 21, 2019

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, severe thunderstorms, tornado, tornado warnings

A squall line of strong to severe storms moved quickly through the Mid-South, including the Memphis metropolitan area, as rush hour began Monday morning. A Tornado Watch was issued shortly after 3am for most of the metro as two lines moved through western and central AR. Just before 6am, the first Tornado Warning was issued…
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Sunny & hot for now, t’storms return Sunday

May 16, 2019

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, forecast discussion, intern

While it may not officially be summer yet, the rest of this week and next week sure do feel like summertime. Luckily, rain chances will stay away now through Saturday leaving us with some pretty nice and warm conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return on Sunday, before hanging around throughout next week. Besides that,…
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Behind-the-scenes: providing weather support to Memphis in May

June 2, 2017

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, event weather, memphis in may

MemphisWeather.net was proud to be the official weather partner of Memphis in May for the third consecutive year! That means that we had a presence on-site anytime the gates were open to the public, as well as provided ancillary forecasting services leading up to all events. It’s time-consuming, but very rewarding to be part of…
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Strong storms precede Arctic cold & a commentary on storm warnings

December 18, 2016

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Erik Proseus

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arctic cold, commentary, event recap, severe thunderstorms

As we predicted in our Friday evening blog, this was indeed a wild and wacky weekend in Mid-South weather. An Arctic cold front, bringing a surge of the coldest air felt yet this winter, sparked widespread thunderstorms along and just behind the front. Wind, both ahead of and behind the front, was a significant issue…
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Commentary: On forecasting tropical systems that haven’t yet formed

August 24, 2016

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, tropical

You’ve likely heard the hype. A tropical wave that has not yet formed into a storm is “bearing down on the Caribbean” and sure to pose the gravest threat to the United States since Twitter was born. Millions are in the potential path! Maybe you’ve even heard of a “triple threat” to the U.S. because…
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Waterlogged Mid-South begins to dry out, and a little commentary

March 14, 2016

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, event recap, flooding, severe weather

Recap of the past week What an amazing weather week! The stage was set with daily record rainfall amounts on Wednesday and Thursday as nearly 8″ of rain fell on the city, creating flash flooding scenarios, filling tributaries, and saturating the ground. That was followed by additional rounds of rainfall to end the week that…
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On “busted” forecasts, building trust, and expectations

January 22, 2016

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, forecast, winter storm

Have you ever tried to predict the final score of a sports game – basketball, football, or even low-scoring games like soccer – before it began? Probably not, though you may have put money, or maybe just a handshake, on the final score – either an over/under or against the spread. How hard is it,…
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Regarding medium-range snowfall forecasts and this week’s chances

January 18, 2016

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, long-range forecast, snow

From a weather perspective, most attention nationally is focused on potential impacts from a Nor’Easter early this weekend in the media capital of the world. But here in the Mid-South, we’ll be dealing with the backside of the same low pressure system that becomes the Nor’Easter late Thursday night/Friday morning. As the low pulls away,…
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Commentary: On long-range “hype-casts” and YOUR responsibility

January 4, 2016

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, long-range forecast

Winter has arrived and with it the appearance of long-range winter storm or snow maps that go viral on Facebook and Twitter. This post puts me “on the record” on these social media sensations, which I call “hype-casts.” The perceived need by many to try and reach the masses (whether with good intent or just…
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On blizzards, communicating uncertainty, hype, and YOUR responsibility

January 28, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, blizzard, commentary, forecast models, social media

The “Blizzard of 2015” has been the biggest weather story so far this winter due to multiple factors – from the promises of a “historic, epic, life-threatening, crippling” storm, to the equally stunning “forecast bust” for the media epicenter of the world, to the claims of hype, to apologies by officials. After a day or…
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A word on today’s forecast “bust”

April 18, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, forecast

Sometimes Mother Nature throws a curve ball. Despite multiple days of buildup based on weather computer models that printed out scenarios involving severe storms with damaging wind and possible tornadoes, tonight’s cold front has come through with little fanfare. In fact, by late afternoon, the atmospheric setup was so borderline, a watch box was not…
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On the naming of winter storms…

February 8, 2013

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, winter storm

We typically stick to forecast discussions, pertinent weather news, and the sort on this blog, but occasionally we feel the need to editorialize a bit and this is one of those times. I had a discussion with a fellow weather-lover and Twitter follower this morning about the naming of winter storms and since it’s a…
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National Hurricane Center changes definition of Hurricane Warning in wake of Sandy

December 5, 2012

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, hurricane, national weather service, sandy

As first reported by AccuWeather, just 5 days after the end of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season and a little over a month after “Post-Tropical Cyclone” (aka, Hurricane) Sandy washed ashore in New Jersey with nary a Hurricane Warning to be found, the National Hurricane Center has re-defined the warning that should have been issued.…
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“Slower than Christmas” – what happened to the MWN iPhone app?

December 13, 2011

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, stormwatch+

Partially in response to many of you who have inquired about the MemphisWeather.net iOS (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch) app and partially out of frustration with the (lack of) developments in getting this app released, what follows is a recap of what has transpired over the past 90 days with regards to our MWN app. Without…
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A look back: Aftermath of the Smithville, MS EF-5 tornado

July 29, 2011

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, smithville, tornado

Approximately 130 miles to the southeast of Memphis, in the heart of northeast Mississippi timber land on a two-lane state highway, lies the small town of Smithville. Or perhaps I should use the past tense… no, the good folks of Smithville would strongly disagree. On April 27, 2011, at 3:45 in the afternoon, the world…
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Commentary: the tornado warning process, use of technology, and application of social media during severe weather

June 19, 2011

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, social media, technology, tornado warnings

I’ve posted in the past on the phenomena known in the weather broadcast community as “wall-to-wall” (or long-form) coverage, in which a local broadcast station (typically TV, though known to occur on radio as well) preempts all routine programming in order to keep the community informed and safe during a severe weather event. It’s not a…
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Commentary: “wall-to-wall” severe weather coverage

May 5, 2009

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Erik Proseus

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commentary, severe weather, tornado, weather coverage

An excellent post on Bamawx.com’s blog (which I encourage you to read), and the responses posted therein, have prompted me to comment here on the practice of “wall-to-wall,” or “long-form,” severe weather coverage. Mike Wilhelm, who does an exceptional job at Bamawx.com, took some heat for his commentary supporting the practice of long-form coverage when…
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President Obama looking at cooling air to fight global warming – a commentary

April 9, 2009

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Erik Proseus

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Barack Obama, climate change, commentary

In an article written today by AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein (full article), President Barack Obama’s chief science advisor, John Holdren, claims that global warming is “happening so fast” that measures once dismissed as radical need to be discussed and considered. While Holdren states that using such experimental measures would be a “last resort,” he…
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