Category: forecast models
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Two potentially impactful weather systems are possible in the next week, and they couldn’t be more different.
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The Setup A warm front will move north over us early Friday morning, bringing (even more) warm and humid air into the Mid-South. A slow-moving cold front over the Central Plains will move southeast on Friday, picking up speed and reaching the Mid-South early Saturday. This will lead to the potential for severe thunderstorms late…
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With Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror, the 2020 calendar is about to flip one more page to December… and it can’t come soon enough! However, if the weather for the month ahead is anything like the first week of December promises to be, I might have to reconsider. Weekend weather (enjoy today!) Today might be…
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Questions are starting, and since we’re about four days out, I thought I would take a few minutes to address this… It’s the Big Snowy Elephant in the Room! (If the room were large enough to hold a mountain!) Forecasts you see from multiple sources are starting to include the potential for snow in the…
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I’ve ranted before on the uselessness of “crap apps” and that ALL weather is local, therefore your weather information sources should also be as local as possible. A classic example was placed in my lap last night. As many of you know, MemphisWeather.net is the official weather partner of the Memphis Redbirds. So it goes…
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The “Blizzard of 2015” has been the biggest weather story so far this winter due to multiple factors – from the promises of a “historic, epic, life-threatening, crippling” storm, to the equally stunning “forecast bust” for the media epicenter of the world, to the claims of hype, to apologies by officials. After a day or…
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We’ve had our share of cold weather to start 2015 with an average temperature for the first half of the month that is over 6 degrees below normal! That will make the next 5 days or so even more enjoyable as warmer air overtakes the region producing multiple days with highs in the 50s and…
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A massive upper-level high pressure ridge has receded a bit, but hot and dry weather continues until tropical moisture arrives, just in time for the holiday weekend! Abnormally dry weather over the past month has resulted in very dry vegetation and soil. A strong upper-level ridge that was in place over the weekend combined with…
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We started the week with beautiful spring weather and that looks to continue for the next few days. Highs in the mid 70’s with lows in the lower 60’s can be expected tomorrow and Wednesday. However, springtime also can mean the potential for strong thunderstorms and we’ll see that possibility later this week. By Wednesday…
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First things first: NO, I don’t know what a TORCON is or how it’s calculated. 4? 8? 2? I have no idea what’s better or worse or what I should do if my area is assigned a certain number. There’s been no peer-reviewed research that explains how it is derived and there certainly is nothing…
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I’ve been asked this, or a variation of it, many times so I figured I would unravel the mystery behind the forecast data on most weather-related mobile apps/websites (from here on I’ll just refer to them as apps). Two categories of forecasts Forecasts that you see in weather apps basically fall into one of two…
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So far, the forecasted “active” 2013 tropical season has been a dud with only one storm (Andrea) having much of any effect on the U.S. mainland and most storms that form struggling to survive. Only two storms have managed to attain hurricane status, one of which stayed far out to sea (Humberto) and one which…
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Synopsis It was a bit chilly this morning with temperatures dipping into the 50’s with plenty of dry air in the region. This is all due to the long-wave trough that made its way through the region a few days ago. The main feature to focus on in the upcoming forecast is a short-wave trough…
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[EP: Though this discussion is a little more technical than our typical blog, it does highlight the different atmospheric processes that will promote rain and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. William is obviously getting a good grasp of the atmosphere in his meteorology classes! For the official MWN Forecast, click here.] Synopsis A unique set…
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[EP: Today, MWN intern William looks at the potential for precip around the metro this afternoon using the HRRR model and a well-conceptualized and written discussion.] Gonna give short term forecasting a shot this morning with the possibility of storms this afternoon using the 11Z HRRR as my primary analysis tool. Lets start off with…
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Only a few changes since our post last evening with respect to the developing winter weather scenario that will play out in the next 24 hours across the Mid-South. Newer model data has arrived and is continuing a similar solution to yesterday with the potential for a band of moderate snow to setup in the…
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It seems much too early in the year to be discussing a real threat of snow in the forecast (as opposed to wish-casting a storm in the model output 2 weeks out). But it appears Mother Nature wants us Mid-South meteorologists to fine-tune our winter forecast skills early this year as she is throwing a…
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Sometimes in the summertime, it is hard to get a cold front to move far enough through the Mid-South to reap the benefits of drier air behind it, let alone cooler temperatures. We’ll get our chance this week! A cold front will sink south through the region on Tuesday, arriving in the metro area in…
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The Mid-South, and in fact much of the central U.S., is experiencing the effects of an unusually strong ridge of high pressure at the upper levels that will build through tomorrow, then begin to weaken later in the week. The ridge is bounded on the west and east by troughs of low pressure aloft (see…
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April showers may bring May flowers, but April severe thunderstorms could bring May insurance claims! Yet another potent weather system will move through the Mid-South Thursday night and Friday, following previous systems the past two Mondays, particularly on April 4 when 70,000+ MLGW customers lost power due to damaging straight line wind. While we enjoy…
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