Category: snow

Ten Things You Should Know About Winter Weather Forecasts

February 14, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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snow, winter storm, winter weather

All credit for this goes to Rick Smith of the NWS in Norman, OK and a personal friend. It applies not only to Oklahoma, but here as well. You can substitute “snow” for sleet or freezing rain throughout, depending on the particular scenario. We’ve said it before – winter weather forecasts in the south are…
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Valentine’s Day update on the President’s Day winter storm

February 14, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow, winter storm

It’s Valentine’s Day morning, the sun is shining, it’s in the 50s, and I’m typing a blog on the upcoming winter storm. To my wife: I love you and thank you for your patience and understanding! (She’s awesome y’all…) Now on to what you came here for! Watches/Advisories The NWS has issued a Winter Storm…
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Friday afternoon update on President’s Day winter weather potential

February 13, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow

First things first, enjoy tomorrow! It should turn out to be a very pleasant late winter day with highs in the 50s – and the last time we see temps anywhere close to that for nearly a week. By late Saturday afternoon, the next in a series of Arctic cold fronts arrives. Wind turns northwesterly…
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Early look at winter weather potential – Sunday night through Tuesday

February 12, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow, winter storm

An uncertain weather pattern lies ahead, made more difficult by continuous shifts in the mid to long-range model data. The time period of concern is Sunday night through Tuesday evening. Short-term forecast We’ll start with the short-term though. Arctic high pressure has, once again, seeped into the region. If you walked outside this afternoon, you…
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Another roller coaster week with a little white stuff on Wednesday night

February 2, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow

January concluded with temperatures that were very near “normal” as the first half of the month was generally cold and the second half of the month warm. February started with a warm (albeit wet) day yesterday but a MUCH colder day today. It appears the temperature roller coaster will continue all week with seasonal days…
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9:50pm update on snow potential for Friday – as challenging as it gets

January 22, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow

Will keep this brief, as it’s getting late, but after earlier today backing off the potential for snow during the day on Friday and calling for just a chance of a rain/snow mix as precip ends Friday evening, models (and the atmosphere) are again leaning a bit more towards a potentially cooler solution for the…
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Update on Friday’s snow threat – the news isn’t good

January 22, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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snow

This blog post has been superceded A more recent update to expected conditions can be found here. Original post: 11:20am Thursday After raising the flag yesterday on the possibility of a rain/snow mix Friday, unfortunately it appears we’re going to have to lower it to half mast, in remembrance of years gone by when, according…
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MWN Winter Weather Discussion for Friday, January 23

January 21, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow

Despite the Mid-South being just past the coldest period of the year according to climate records, our current stretch of 55°+ days, which stands at 6 and includes a few mid 60s, is the longest such streak since Nov. 19-24. That is about to end though, as a cold dome of high pressure over the…
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Dusting of snow deposited on the metro – the latest info

November 17, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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snow

UPDATE – 6:45am: Clouds are departing and precip is done. We’ll see mostly sunny skies this morning then some clouds and possible flurries could move into mainly west TN portions of the area this afternoon as “backlash” moisture moves into the low levels. Temps will sit in the low-mid 30s all day with northwest wind…
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Another winter weather event tonight – this one NOT a surprise

November 16, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow, winter weather

Another Arctic cold front moves through the Mid-South overnight, dropping temperatures as precipitation moves out behind a low pressure system moving through the southeastern states. This is a familiar pattern for meteorologists. The timing of the arrival of cold air and departure of deepest available moisture always creates an interesting scenario for wintry precipitation in…
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Lessons learned from the first snow of the season and their application to the next event (this weekend)

November 13, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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event recap, forecast discussion, snow

A surprise snow to start the season Weather and traffic folks had their hands full early this morning when “surprise” snow showers passed over the metro around dawn. I quote “surprise” because there were clues last evening that some precipitation could occur this morning. In fact, I updated the official MWN Forecast shortly after 10pm…
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Do cool Memphis Julys signal a cold and snowy winter?

August 6, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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climate, record temps, snow, winter

A question we have been asked a lot recently is what our unseasonably cool July might mean for the upcoming winter. We decided to look at the top 5 coldest Julys in Memphis and each of the following winters to see if there is any connection between cool summers and the following winter. For the…
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Cold weather returns along with some precip tonight – will winter ever end??

February 25, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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cold front, forecast discussion, snow

8:00 UPDATE We are receiving lots of reports of sleet and even a little thunder in the area this evening as freezing levels are low and air fairly dry, promoting sleet development. Temps remain in the 40s at this time and will fall into the 30s, but no travel issues are expected this evening due…
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UPDATED: One More Winter Threat Then A Distinct Warming Trend

February 11, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow, winter weather

UPDATE 6:35PM: The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the remainder of the metro east of the MS River due to expansion of precipitation heading in our direction and model trends indicating that around an inch of snow will be possible most of the metro starting late tonight and lasting through mid-day tomorrow. An…
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The news you don’t want regarding west TN snow

February 9, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow, winter weather

Computer models give, and they take away just as fast. What appeared to be our best shot of accumulating snow is now nothing more than another tease. Yesterday we were looking at models solutions that ranged from 3-5″ snow, with one model printing out up to 9″ of snow (no, we didn’t advertise that then…
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Winter Storm Watch: Significant snow possible early this week

February 8, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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snow, winter weather

For those complaining about how we never get a “good snow” and were mildly disappointed in the 1/2″ that fell overnight, your wish may yet come true! While details are still to be ironed out and those that we are looking at now will change between now on early in the week, it appears that…
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Good chance of snow tonight, but how much and what are the impacts?

February 7, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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snow, winter weather

This is an update to last night’s post on the forecast for snow overnight tonight. A fast-moving upper-level disturbance will sweep out of the Southern Plains and across the Mid-South overnight. With cold air in place and precipitation likely, we’re expecting snow. Liquid equivalent amounts (if snow were melted) are expected to be light, under…
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Mid-South snow possible again as we head into the weekend

February 6, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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forecast discussion, snow, winter weather

Welcome to the MWN Blog! Let me preface this blog with a simple statement: snow is NOT guaranteed in the time frames that we will be talking about, but there is certainly the possibility for accumulating snowfall on multiple occasions in the next week. Analysis Now, based on the latest model guidance, there is a…
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Winter weather forecasting in the South – it’s not for the faint of heart

February 5, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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meteorology, rant, snow, winter weather

Winter weather forecasting in the South has a way of reminding us (meteorologists) that we are human and NOT in control. It reminds us that, though we know so much more than we did a year ago, five years ago, or twenty years ago, there is still so much more to learn. It reminds us…
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Looking ahead to Sunday’s Arctic plunge: snow & bitter cold

January 3, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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arctic cold, cold front, forecast discussion, snow

Temperatures in the lower half of the 30s today will feel like spring warmth by early next week, following an Arctic cold front that moves through Sunday morning. And certainly don’t get used to the upper 40s expected Saturday! Rain chances increase Saturday night ahead of the front being shoved across the eastern U.S. by…
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