January Climate Recap
2021 started with above average temperatures and slightly below average rainfall and snowfall. Only eight days during the month were cooler than average so the relative warmth was fairly persistent through the month. The exceptions were a week-long spell of cool weather during the second week of the month and a couple of days near the end of the month. Four days near the end of the month also recorded highs of 60 degrees or warmer.
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A wet December dried up some in January with precipitation totaling just over 3.5 inches, or about a half inch below normal. Despite above average temperatures, snowfall was recorded on five days, four of which were just flurries, but 0.3″ was recorded on the 11th. Thunderstorms occurred on the 24th and 25th and severe weather was reported on the afternoon of the 25th as storms brought hail up to 2″ in diameter to locations from Southaven to Germantown and a brief EF-0 tornado touched down in far western Fayette County. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were in effect for this event.
A damage survey was conducted in rural Fayette County for Monday’s (1/25/21) severe weather. An EF0 tornado occurred roughly 5 miles north of Piperton, TN. Path length 1.2 miles, Width 50 yds. #tnwx #midsouthweatherhttps://t.co/2IF4uDvMlS
— NWS Memphis (@NWSMemphis) January 27, 2021
Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
Temperature
Average temperature: 43.8 degrees (2.6 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 51.4 degrees (1.6 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 36.2 degrees (3.6 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 72 degrees (25th)
Coolest temperature: 21 degrees (12th)
Heating Degrees Days: 649 (89 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 0 (1 below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Eight dates recorded low temperatures at or below freezing versus an average of 14.5. The average temperature for the month ended 39th warmest in the 147 year historical record.
Precipitation
Monthly total: 3.55″ (0.43″ below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (0.5 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.00″ (12/31 to 1/1)
Snowfall: 0.3″ (occurred on the 11th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Snow fell on 5 days during the month, all but one recorded only a trace (7th, 8th, 16th, and 27th.
Miscellaneous
Peak wind: West-northwest/42 mph (25th)
Average wind: 8.7 mph
Average relative humidity: 67%
Average sky cover: 67%
Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.
Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN
Temperature
Average temperature: 42.4 degrees
Average high temperature: 50.9 degrees
Average low temperature: 34.2 degrees
Warmest temperature: 71.7 degrees (25th)
Coolest temperature: 20.9 degrees (12th)
Comments: None
Precipitation
Monthly total: 2.68″ (automated rain gauge), 2.90″(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10
Wettest date: 0.64″ (1st) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: 0.2″ (occurred on the 11th)
Comments: Snow flurries were also recorded on the 7th and 15th.
Miscellaneous
Peak wind: West/28 mph (15th)
Average relative humidity: 76%
Average barometric pressure: 30.08in. Hg
Comments: None
Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.
MWN Forecast Accuracy
MWN average temperature error: 2.74 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 53%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.32 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 64%
MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.
Climate Outlook – February 2021
The February climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Below average temperatures are forecast for a large section of the United States, particularly in the north and west, with highest probabilities in the northern Plains. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis. The average temperature for February is 45.5 degrees, four degrees warmer than January.
Precipitation is expected to be above normal across much of the northern and eastern U.S., particularly the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Below average precipitation is forecast along the Pacific coast and coastal southeast in February. For Memphis, odds favor above average rainfall (a 40% chance) versus only a 27% chance of below average rainfall. Precipitation historically averages 4.39 inches.
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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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