The current drought situation across the Mid-South is shown above. The immediate Memphis area is in D0-D1 drought conditions, while parts of north MS are in D3 – Extreme Drought, brought about by a lack of rain in August. That could change, and quickly, later this week.
As we look into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (red hatched area on the left side of the graphic below), a storm is brewing and the National Hurricane Center is confident it will become Tropical Storm Francine, maybe by the time you read this. It already has 40-45 mph wind but is going through the final development stages of acquiring a defined low pressure center. Once it does, it will be Francine and tropical watches and warnings are likely to be hoisted for parts of the western Gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana within the next 24 hours. (The other “areas of investigation” in the Atlantic are unlikely to affect the Mid-South, but will bear watching in the coming week as well).
Forecast computer models (shown below) already have it in their sights and forecast that it will become a strong tropical storm, or perhaps even a hurricane, as it bends towards the northeast across the western Gulf. While it is still a few days out, currently landfall is projected in southern Louisiana, or perhaps far eastern TX, on Wednesday. From there, it appears the larger scale pattern will result in a path into the ArkLaTex and north-northeast towards the Mid-South during the latter half of the week.
Given that potential track, part or all of the Mid-South would receive beneficial (maybe even excessive) rainfall on Thursday and Friday. The NWS Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Thursday morning through Friday morning (shown below) currently has the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of rainfall amounts capable of producing flooding. We expect that risk to increase for some for some part of that area, once the path of the storm becomes more certain. A Day 5 Slight Risk lends some credence to the threat however. While it’s too early to define exact rainfall amounts, a couple of inches would be likely if the storm were to pass through the Mid-South, and 3-5″ looks possible for some areas. Most of that would fall between Thursday morning and Friday evening.
In addition to heavy rain, the other factor that will be of some concern is strong wind. Maximum wind is even more dependent on the exact path of the low, as well as how strong the storm gets prior to landfall, both of which are uncertain at this time. Worst case would be gusts in excess of 50 mph for several hours, though gusts to 25-30 mph seem quite possible given what we know now.
Our recommendation as we close out a gorgeous weekend is to remain aware and stay updated on the storm early this week. Prepare for the potential for heavy rain, possibly accompanied by strong wind, Thursday into Friday. Storm drains and gutters should be cleared to reduce the chance of flooding and be aware that power outages will be possible if the wind is strong enough.
For reference, the last time tropical remnants moved within 50 miles of Memphis with strong wind was June 23, 2017, when southerly wind gusts reached 47 mph at Memphis International Airport from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy (track shown below).
