It’s about the time of year we start thinking about what winter will look like in the Mid-South. How cold can we expect it to be? How about icy conditions? Will there be another significant snow event like we saw this past January?
Seasonal forecasting for these factors can be challenging at best, but we can use historical trends during various phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to predict what we might be seeing this winter. Keep in mind that while teleconnections like forecasted El Niño/La Niña phases govern weather patterns on a very large scale. There are sure to be exceptions to what is typical. For instance, even if it’s forecasted to be a warmer and drier winter, cold snaps and even snow are not out of the question.
This year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it is looking likely that a weak La Niña pattern will develop, which implies a warmer winter for us here in the Mid-South with near average precipitation. Since the jet stream position will favor a storm track more in the northern United States this winter, and La Niña affects winter precipitation patterns, higher precipitation values are likely to be in the northern regions of the U.S. such as the Great Lakes and the Pacific Northwest, rather than in the Mid-South. Essentially, the jet stream being farther north than usual means that it should keep enhanced precipitation to our north, leaving us close to normal.
While I’m certain you’re more interested in snow, most of our winter precipitation is rain; our average precipitation value for the winter (including melted snow) is around 14” from December to February, so you can expect that to be about what we see this winter. However, as mentioned before, snow is not out of the question! Memphis has a snowfall average of 2.7”, but it is important to note that this amount comes from averaging widely varying winters – think about Winter 2023, with very little snow, compared to this past January, where some of us had more than we knew what to do with! So if you don’t see 2.7 inches of snow on the ground this winter, remember that!
While La Niña affects precipitation patterns, temperature also fluctuates as a result of jet stream placement as well. On a continental scale, the Pacific Northwest is likely to be cooler while much of the southern and eastern United States is likely to be warmer to some degree. The most likely scenario is that temperatures would average above historical normals in the Mid-South region from December to February. For reference, average low temperatures range from 33-40° and the average highs range from 51-59°, so you will still need the winter coats! A warmer winter does not necessarily equate to a WARM winter!
In a short and sweet summary: In a La Niña pattern, we might expect slightly warmer than average temperatures and generally average precipitation values. To reiterate, even in a warm winter, there still exists the chance for cold snaps or snowy/icy weather. The precipitation graphic also shows that we are at an “equal chance” for above or below average precipitation, but the simplest way to grasp the concept is to interpret it as though we will likely see an average amount of rain/snow/ice.
Temperature | Rainfall | |
December | 44.8° | 5.74″ |
January | 42.1° | 3.98″ |
February | 46.1° | 4.39″ |
Winter Average / Total | 44.3° | 14.11″ |
As mentioned earlier, seasonal forecasting is challenging, but using teleconnections can help give us a general idea of what is likely to occur. While a La Niña winter is what can be largely expected, there are certainly plenty of other teleconnections that are not as predictable and can have strong effects on a shorter-term scale (week-to-week) to counter the typical La Niña pattern.
Once the La Niña pattern develops, it is not certain how long it might last. If it persists later into spring, that could favor more severe weather for the area. It’s still up in the air at this point, but it’s a possibility as we glance past winter and into the slightly more distant future.
Lórien Gray
MWN Intern
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