Category: seasonal outlook
-
A weak and short-lived La Nina is forecast for this winter. What does this mean for winter conditions in the Mid-South?
Read more
-
Atlantic hurricane season is about to begin (as it meteorological summer!). We take a look at the forecast for each.
Read more
-
Coming off a cold winter, how do temperature and precipitation trends look for this spring?
Read more
-
With a weak La Niña pattern forecast to develop, what does winter look like for Memphis?
Read more
-
Meteorological Fall Comes to an End As the calendar turns to December and minds collectively turn towards the end-of-year holiday season, meteorologists see a changing of the seasons. While the official start of winter is when the winter solstice occurs (December 21), “meteorological winter” for climate record-keeping purposes starts December 1 and runs through the…
Read more
-
You won’t believe (or maybe you would) how many times I’ve been asked whether winter is actually over. The short answer? I think so. Let’s take a look… First, if you think this was a “year without a winter,” you are only partially right. It’s been a while, and the recent heat has probably seered…
Read more
-
Climatologists and environmental scientists expected El Nino to appear over the winter of 2014-’15 and, though it never officially did, it appears it was only tardy, not absent. As we head into summer, NOAA has now indicated that a weak but strengthening El Nino is present and could become one of the strongest in quite…
Read more
-
Now that it is mid-March with highs in the mid 70s, we can probably safely safe winter 2014-’15 is over for the Mid-South. That doesn’t mean we won’t see temps drop below freezing for a couple of hours some morning or frost on the ground. In fact, on average the last freeze date is still…
Read more
-
Winter appears to be starting a bit early this year, as Arctic air is poised to ooze south of the Mason-Dixon by mid-late week. But is that a foreshadow of things to come or just an anomalous event in what would be a reversal of last year’s cold winter? This year’s MWN Winter Outlook is…
Read more
-
If you don’t like cool weather, I recommend you stop reading now. OK maybe not, but this post is going to be all about below normal temperatures, so put on your gloves and earmuffs and continue on, intrepid readers! What’s average? We’ll start with where we’re supposed to be, because sometimes that gets lost in…
Read more
-
From the Farmer’s Almanac, via the NY Post, I find this screen capture incredibly ironic: The article above, dated April 14th and quoting the Farmer’s Almanac (which I pulled up this morning on the NYC Post website), indicates an “oppressively hot and humid summer” for the New York area. In the margin are suggested articles…
Read more
-
Winter outlooks are always a tricky endeavor here in the Mid-South. In fact, I’ll be honest, I don’t like doing them, but they seem to be popular among our readers so I put them together each year with some hesitation. In the interest of full disclosure, I’m not a long-range forecaster. I specialize in nowcasting.…
Read more
-
Earlier today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center issued their 2012-2013 winter outlook. Citing what forecasters term an “elusive” El Niño that has not made it’s presence known as expected this fall, the forecast is “less certain than previous years.” “This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided…
Read more
-
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their updated temperature probability outlooks today. Below are the outlooks for July 2012 and the July-August-September period. The tan colors indicate temperatures above normal are more likely than temperatures below normal. Light blue colors indicate temperatures below normal are more likely than temperatures above normal. To decipher, consider first that in…
Read more
-
Image of funnel cloud north of Wolfchase area courtesy Dennis K. Russell A couple of recent blog posts by Jesse Ferrell of Weather Underground and Paul Yeager of AOLNews and CloudyandCool.com have discussed the expected uptick in severe weather, specifically tornadoes, as we head into the heart of spring when cool, dry air collides with…
Read more
-
With the winter season not too far down the road and an increased interest in long-range forecasts, I have put together some thoughts on what we may expect to see weather-wise here in the Mid-South. ResearchThere is a plethora of data, long-range forecasts, and opinions available with regard to the upcoming winter season. I studied…
Read more
-
Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow this morning, so we’re looking at six more weeks of winter… right? Well how about the Southern variation of Phil, Gen. Beau Lee – “Georgia’s Official Weather Prognosticator?” Gen. Lee did NOT see his shadow this morning, indicating an early spring! While Phil may be o-“phil”-cial, Gen. Lee is…
Read more
