The weather prognosticating groundhogs had their say a few weeks ago, with the most famous – Punxsutawney Phil – predicting 6 more weeks of winter. While February was colder than usual for much of the country, most of us are probably ready for this past week’s warmer weather to continue for the foreseeable future. After all, statistics indicate it has indeed been a pretty cold couple of months in the Mid-South. So what does the spring weather outlook look like?
Details from NOAA’s spring outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), parent organization of the National Weather Service (NWS), recently released their spring seasonal outlook. Spring technically does not start until March 20 (when the sun crosses the equator, resulting in an equinox). meteorologists define the seasons by 3-month blocks for record-keeping purposes, with “meteorological spring” occurring from March 1 to May 31.
The spring temperature outlook depicts elevated probabilities of above average temperatures for the southern tier of states, extending into the eastern United States, including Memphis and the Mid-South. The greatest chance of above normal temperatures is found from the Desert Southwest across southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast into Florida. Temperatures are favored to be below normal across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies.
Precipitation-wise, above normal precipitation is most likely in the Pacific Northwest this spring, as well as from the Great Lakes region south into the Ohio Valley. The Mid-South is forecast to have slightly elevated chances of above average precipitation. In all, odds favor slightly warmer and wetter than average conditions this spring in the Memphis area.
For some perspective, normal high temperatures are near 60 degrees to start March and rise to the mid 80s by the end of May while low temperatures rise from the 40s to the 60s. Spring is typically the wettest season of the year, averaging nearly 17 inches of rain with precipitation falling roughly one out of every three days.
Spring storms not uncommon in the Mid-South
Most area residents know that spring is the primary severe thunderstorm season in the Mid-South. The changing seasons are marked by frequent frontal passages that escort cool and dry air into a warm and unstable atmosphere.
The result is often a turbulent scenario in which strong to severe thunderstorms thrive, bringing the threat of torrential rain, high wind, large hail, and in some cases, tornadoes. With the potential for warmer and wetter than average conditions, conditions supportive of strong thunderstorms could occur more often than usual.
Preparing for severe weather season
Severe Weather Awareness Week was last week in Tennessee, and the turn of the calendar from February to March makes this the ideal time to revisit your personal severe weather safety plan. That plan should include being prepared for high wind and power outages, having multiple ways to receive severe weather information (as any single method could fail) and making sure your safe place is identified and ready in case tornadoes threaten. The Mid-South gets a large share of its severe weather overnight, so considerations should also be made for that potential, most importantly how you will receive severe weather warnings.
Long-time users of the legacy MWN mobile app are reminded that that app is now retired and should not be relied on for severe weather alerts. Instead, our in-house alert app – StormWatch+ – will help fill that gap nicely. StormWatch+ features wake-me-up audio for the most severe threats, including overriding of Do Not Disturb. You can program up to 5 locations nationwide to monitor for weather alerts and choose from many different alert types that you wish to receive push notifications for. Learn more at www.stormwatchplus.com!
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist
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Where’s March at