With cold air in place and low pressure heading for the Gulf Coast, the stage is set for a significant winter storm by Mid-South standards.
An ideal winter weather recipe
A strong cold front on Sunday evening brought heavy rain and thunderstorms, which was quickly followed by an Arctic airmass. High temperatures haven’t escaped the 30s since, with intermittent light snow flurries on both Monday and Tuesday.
A low pressure system is now taking shape over Texas that will traverse the Gulf coast – an ideal setup for accumulating snow in the Mid-South, as long as sufficient moisture and cold air are in place. In this particular case, those ingredients are coming together.
What, when, and how much?
Snowfall is expected to begin overnight Thursday into Friday morning and continue throughout the day Friday before tapering off early Friday evening. Light accumulation of an inch or so is possible by sunrise Friday, but the heaviest snow – perhaps up an inch per hour – will fall Friday morning into the early afternoon hours. The lower atmosphere is expected to be cold enough to support an all-snow event in the Memphis metro.
The only exception may be northern Mississippi for a a brief time Friday, when a wintry mix is possible. Any icing is likely to be limited to areas south of the Memphis metro – good news for utilities as tree branches and power lines should have minimal damage.
When all is said and done, much of the Memphis area will likely receive upwards of six inches of snow. In large snow events, there typically are “bands” of heavier snow that form, which are not predictable with any certainty too far in advance. If those develop, localized areas could receive slightly higher snow totals.
The National Weather Service has placed the Mid-South in a Winter Storm Warning that begins at 6pm Thursday, discouraging travel Thursday night and Friday. By Friday morning, most primary and secondary roadways will likely be snow-covered.
Where might this storm rank historically?
Compared to recent years, a total over five inches would mark the snowiest day this century in Memphis, beating the record set on February 8, 2010. It would also be the first with more than three inches in the month of January since 2000. For those who recall the snow storm last January, that event occurred over two days and dropped three to six inches across Shelby County, but officially totaled 3.4 inches at Memphis International Airport.
Looking into the weekend and beyond
After the storm, sunshine will return this weekend, but temperatures will remain quite cold as the Arctic airmass remains in place and snow cover limits surface heating. Temperatures will drop well below freezing Friday night – into the lower 20s – and barely climb above freezing on Saturday. While some snow will start melting if exposed to direct sunlight Saturday, re-freezing is expected Saturday night with temperatures again falling into the lower 20s. More aggressive melting is likely to occur Sunday afternoon as the mercury climbs into the upper 30s, but shady areas will be slow to improve.
Looking into next week, more sunshine is expected, though temperatures remain well below normal with lows in the lower to mid 20s and highs only reaching the mid to upper 30s through mid-week. Fortunately, it is not likely to be cold enough to cause widespread problems with pipes freezing and bursting. However, pipes or hose bibs exposed to outside air should be insulated or covered, and faucets left dripping overnight if on exterior walls, especially if they aren’t well insulated.
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist
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