Bitter MLK weekend in store
As we reach the middle of meteorological winter (December-February), polar air from the Arctic becomes a common theme across portions of the country. An upper-level system over Lake Michigan will bring a deep trough of low pressure behind it through Saturday night and Sunday morning across the Mid-South. This deep troughing will result in very cold temperatures for the MLK weekend.
Another reason we are seeing this impressive shot of arctic air this weekend is due to a ridge of high pressure across the western half of the United States. This pushes warmer air into British Columbia, Canada, and Alaska, which then forces Arctic air from Canada to spread southward into the U.S. This can be seen below with the green arrow representing warmer air pushing northward and the pink arrow representing the arctic air being forced southward due to the ridging across the West Coast.
How cold are we talking?
As the upper-level trough moves across the Mid-South tonight into Sunday morning, bitterly cold air will move in behind it. The coldest period will be tonight into early next week. Low temperatures will drop into the upper teens tonight with wind chills in the low to mid teens Sunday morning (that’s faucet-dripping cold!).
Sunday and MLK Day will feature highs only in the mid 30s (about 15 degrees below average), while Tuesday afternoon will approach 40 degrees. Low temperatures will be bitterly cold throughout this period with low to mid 20s expected.
Mid-week uncertainty as cold air and moisture may overlap
Going into mid-week, we will see moisture begin to return across the Mid-South as wind shifts to the south and temperatures warm. However, the amount of moisture that will be available to produce precipitation is still in question at this time.
The potential for cold air is more certain though behind multiple Canadian disturbances that will move across the Great Lakes region. These disturbances will bring a return of colder air across portions of the Midwest and Mid-South. How far south that cold air (cold enough to produce wintry precipitation) stretches is also a factor.
Given all of the uncertainty in the timing and degree of cold air, and subsequent overlap of sufficient moisture, we still feel the odds are very low for any winter weather in the Memphis area. Should all of the factors align, the best chance would be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some rain Wednesday into Wednesday night appears likely though.
With this potential event still several days out, it is important to know that exact details are still very uncertain and trends will be monitored over the next few days. The overall setup, though, is not typically conducive for a “good snow.” As always, we’ll keep our forecast on MemphisWeather.net updated daily!
This winter has been relatively quiet compared to last year at this point. Recall the heavy snow that fell January 10, 2025? So far, all snowfall has remained north of the region, as shown below. However, there is still some winter left for snow-lovers, and historically some of our biggest snow events have occurred in February to early March. Hang in there!
Aidan O’Brien
MWN Social Media Intern
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist
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