Category: tropical

Squeeze play – cold front and Tropical Storm Lee combine to bring rainy, cooler weather

September 4, 2011

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, forecast discussion, tropical

T.S. Lee makes landfall and a cold front moves towards the region from the north on Sunday morning Tropical Storm Lee made landfall (if you can call it that, moving at 2-3 mph) over south-central Louisiana this morning and will move slowly northeast over the coming couple of days. It’s effects, in the form of…
Read more
Tropical Storm Lee eyes Gulf Coast – rain and cooler temps to result in the Mid-South

September 2, 2011

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, forecast discussion, tropical

Recently-upgraded Tropical Storm Lee is meandering ever so slowly over the northern Gulf of Mexico, roughly 180 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River as of 7pm CDT Friday. Maximum sustained wind has increased to 45 mph today and will increase a little more as it creeps towards the south-central LA coastline over…
Read more
Could “Lee” bring tropical conditions to the Gulf Coast for Labor Day?

August 31, 2011

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, tropical

I’ve mentioned on social media a couple of times the strong possibility of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system this Labor Day weekend. Computer models are not in good agreement with exactly where and how strong, but it appears that the central and or western Gulf Coast could see heavy rain and breezy conditions this…
Read more
Weekend forecast looks nice in the Mid-South, but not in the northeast U.S!

August 25, 2011

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, forecast discussion, major hurricane, stormwatch+, tropical

The blog has been quiet of late, owing to many things going on behind the scenes, as well as other obligations that have prevented me from writing. One of the big things going on behind the scenes is the imminent release of our newest service for smartphone users – StormWatch+. I am very excited about…
Read more
Potential tropical system takes aim on parched Texas

July 27, 2011

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, drought, tropical

A strong tropical wave, which later this afternoon could become Tropical Depression 4 or Tropical Storm Don, is beginning to swirl just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, near Cancun. The graphic below shows the computer model forecasts for potential tracks of the storm. As you can see, it appears that Texas could…
Read more
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

May 26, 2011

–

Erik Proseus

–

2010 recap, atlantic, forecast, tropical

Hurricane Isabel, 2003 With all of the severe weather, tornadoes, and flooding getting the press lately, the Atlantic Ocean is probably thinking “what about me?” The official forecasts have been issued and it’s Hurricane Preparedness Week this week as coastal areas gear up for another round of tropical peek-a-boo. Last year at this time, we were talking…
Read more
Recap of 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

December 1, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, hurricane, tropical

As predicted by all of the major players at the start of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, 2010 proved to be a very active year. The factors which came together to make this year about twice as active as the average year included a moderate La Nina event in the eastern Pacific resulting in lower…
Read more
Busy hurricane season continues with I, J, and K

September 15, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, hurricane, major hurricane, tropical

What seemed like a slow start to hurricane season has definitely taken on new life in September! The Atlantic basin is currently featuring 3 storms: Igor, Julia, and Karl (click image above for larger view). Igor (EE-gor) has been churning through the central Atlantic for several days now and has spent over 3 days at…
Read more
Peak of hurricane season today

September 10, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, hurricane, tropical

As the graph above (courtesy NOAA) shows, today (September 10) marks the peak of the average Atlantic hurricane season. To date, we have had 9 named storms and 2 unnamed depressions, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Fortunately, no major systems have made landfall along the U.S. coastline, though T.D. 2 passed through the Rio…
Read more
Mid-July Atlantic Tropical Update

July 20, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, tropical

So far, it’s been a relatively quiet start to the 2010 Atlantic tropical season (which had started with nearly unanimous predictions for a highly active season), with just one named storm (Alex) that went on to become a hurricane and a second Tropical Depression. Unfortunately, south Texas and northeast Mexico have been the recipients of…
Read more
Hurricane Alex headed for landfall in northeast Mexico

June 30, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

alex, hurricane, tropical

6/30/10 – 9PM CDT UPDATE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL AROUND 9 PM CDT… 0200 UTC… ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA… ABOUT 110 MI SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MAXIMUM…
Read more
Tropical disturbance organizing, will become T.D. 1

June 25, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, tropical

A disturbance traversing the southern Caribbean the past several days has continued to become more organized with deeper convection the past day or so and is now very near Tropical Depression strength (see satellite image above). The National Hurricane Center currently has a hurricane hunter aircraft investigating the system and could label the system T.D.…
Read more
2010 Atlantic tropical season ready to produce “Alex”?

June 13, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, tropical

So far, two weeks into the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics have been quiet. But that may change early this week as an area of low pressure over the north-central Atlantic has the potential to become the first tropical storm of the year – “Alex.” The National Hurricane Center indicates that conditions appear favorable…
Read more
Colorado State hurricane experts update their 2010 outlook

June 2, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, hurricane, major hurricane, tropical

In an update to my post from Monday, Colorado State University hurricane forecast experts Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray released their early June Atlantic hurricane outlook this morning. Previously (on April 7), they had predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major Atlantic hurricanes this year. Those numbers were all increased,…
Read more
Unofficial start of summer and the official start of hurricane season

June 1, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

forecast discussion, heat, tropical

The unofficial start of summer occurs on Memorial Day weekend, however the meteorological start of summer IS today as we in the weather business define summer for climate records as June-August. Though the summer solstice, and official start of summer, are still 3 weeks away, looking at the coming week’s forecast would indicate otherwise! Today’s…
Read more
Atlantic Hurricane Season begins Tuesday

May 31, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, hurricane, tropical

The start of Atlantic Hurricane season is tomorrow, June 1, and there seems to be much fear and trepidation as this season begins. There are a few reasons for general increase in trepidation, but most of it is simply grounded in the unknown – from dire forecasts of doom and gloom, to a lingering environmental…
Read more
Extreme weather video and a note on hurricane season

May 21, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

hail, hurricane, tornado, tropical, video

I thought I’d share a couple of videos of extreme weather with you today. First up, check out this video from KMBC’s news chopper as a weak tornado touches down near Sedalia in central MO (east of KC). Thanks to Eric Sorensen, whose weather blog for NBC-13 in Rockford, IL, brought it to my attention.…
Read more
Looking ahead: Hurricane Season 2010

April 9, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, hurricane, tropical

Earlier this week, Dr.’s Klotzbach and Gray of Colorado State University issued the April update to their 2010 hurricane season forecast. This forecast has been produced for 27 years and is one of the “standards” referenced in long-term tropical forecasting for the Atlantic basin. First, a review of the 2009 season (graphic courtesy NHC below).…
Read more
Changes to Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale for 2010

March 1, 2010

–

Erik Proseus

–

hurricane, tropical

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which has been in existence as is since 1975, will be undergoing a change for the 2010 tropical season. The new scale, renamed the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, will de-couple storm surge, central pressure, and flooding impacts from the hurricane scale. The new scale will still use the same catgories –…
Read more
Monday afternoon Ida update

November 9, 2009

–

Erik Proseus

–

atlantic, tropical

As of 3pm this afternoon, Ida has weakened to a just-below-hurricane strength Tropical Storm, but is maintaining 70 mph wind in its inner core. The end is rapidly nearing for Ida though as it encounters a hostile environment and will be merging with a frontal system over the next 12-24 hours and becoming extratropical. The…
Read more