Category: accuracy

June 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

July 6, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

June Recap Temperatures and precipitation were above normal in Memphis in May and that trend continued in June. In fact, daily average temperatures were at or above normal for 22 consecutive days during the month. Precipitation was below normal until a deluge of more than 2″ to end the month. However, most of the metro…
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May 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

June 6, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

May Recap Cool conditions during the latter half of April transitioned to above normal temperatures in May for most of the month with the exception of a couple of very cool days on the 21st and 22nd. In addition, a dry April turned into a wet May with precipitation above normal across the Mid-South. Memphis…
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April 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

May 10, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

April Recap The cold and wet February/March period turned to warm and drier the first half of April, then shifted to a cool and dry period the last couple of weeks of the month. There were a few rounds of thunderstorms in the metro, but severe weather was again (like March) below the typical pace.…
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March 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

April 7, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

March Recap The cold and wet pattern that started mid-February continued into early March with well below normal temperatures and one more significant winter weather event. On March 4-5, a widespread accumulating event brought 3-6″ of snow and sleet metro-wide, including 3.6″ at Memphis International Airport. In addition, a low of 15° on March 6…
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The Results Show: Reviewing our 2014-2015 Winter Outlook

March 16, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, seasonal outlook, winter weather

Now that it is mid-March with highs in the mid 70s, we can probably safely safe winter 2014-’15 is over for the Mid-South. That doesn’t mean we won’t see temps drop below freezing for a couple of hours some morning or frost on the ground. In fact, on average the last freeze date is still…
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February 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

March 10, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

February Recap Temperatures were the big story in February, with the month ending as the 7th coldest on record. In fact, the second half of the month was the coldest comparable period in recorded history, breaking the previous record by over 5 degrees. The previous three months were very dry with severe drought in some…
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January 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

February 8, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

January Recap Dry conditions that ended the year 2014 continued into 2015, although temperatures were near normal for the month. In fact, drought conditions are now present across the metro after a prolonged period of below normal precipitation. As of February 3, severe drought (D2 on a 4-point scale) is present in southwest Shelby Co.,…
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On blizzards, communicating uncertainty, hype, and YOUR responsibility

January 28, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, blizzard, commentary, forecast models, social media

The “Blizzard of 2015” has been the biggest weather story so far this winter due to multiple factors – from the promises of a “historic, epic, life-threatening, crippling” storm, to the equally stunning “forecast bust” for the media epicenter of the world, to the claims of hype, to apologies by officials. After a day or…
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December 2014 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

January 9, 2015

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

December Recap Dry conditions continued from November into December, although temperatures swung from well below normal in November to above average this month. Despite a cloudy month (80% average cloud cover), precipitation was more than 3″ below the average of 5.74″. The clouds didn’t hinder temperatures from ending more than 2.5 degrees above normal. In…
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November 2014 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

December 8, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

November Recap November was a cold and dry month across the Mid-South. In fact, the month tied for the 7th coldest on record. The cold also led to some of the earliest snowfall on record with two measurable events – the 4th and 7th earliest on record. Though it was a cold month, for the…
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October 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

November 9, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

October Recap After a ten month streak of below normal temperatures was broken in August, October continued a new streak of above normal temperatures, now at three months, averaging 1.4 degrees above normal. Rainfall totaled 4.00 inches for the month, which is almost exactly average, but for the year precipitation is still 124% of normal,…
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September 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

October 5, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

September Recap A ten month streak of below normal temperatures was broken in August. September saw those above normal temperatures continue, averaging 1.0 degree above normal. Despite the warmer than average month, the average temperature for the year through September ranks 30th coolest on record (a span of 140 years). Precipitation-wise, it was a rather…
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August 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

September 5, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

August Recap Through July, each month in 2014 had experienced below normal average temperatures. In fact, it had been 10 months since Memphis had an “above average” month temperature-wise. That streak ended with an average temperature for the month of August 0.5 degrees above normal. The highest temperature for the month (100, which tied a…
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July 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

August 7, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

July Recap As mentioned last month, each month in 2014 has experienced below normal average temperatures. July 2014 not only was below normal, but was nearly record-breaking in that regard! The average temperature for the month at Memphis International Airport was 4.7 degrees below normal, ending as the sixth coolest Memphis July in 140 years…
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June 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

July 7, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

June Recap Each month in 2014 has experienced below normal average temperatures. June continued the trend, but was just barely below average as May was. The average temperature for the month at Memphis International Airport was just 0.3 degrees below normal at 79.3 degrees. After failing to reach 90 degrees through May, Memphis reached 90…
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May 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

June 6, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

May Recap Each month in 2014 has seen below normal average temperatures and May continued the trend, but just barely. The average temperature for the month was just 0.3 degrees below normal at 71.4 degrees. There was a cool spell in the middle of the month that resulted in one record low temperature of 46…
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April 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

May 6, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

April Recap Following well below normal temperatures in the first three months of the year, April offered only slightly below normal temperatures, making for an overall pleasant month. One temperature record was broken, the coolest maximum temperature on April 30th, which saw a high of only 58. Precipitation for the month was slightly above the…
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March 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

April 5, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

March Recap Following well below normal temperatures in January and February, March offered little reprieve other than the fact that below normal temperatures were a little warmer due to seasonality. The March mean temperature was 4.5 degrees below normal. No records were broken, but March 3rd saw a high temperature that was below freezing and…
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February 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

March 3, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

February Recap Following a brutally cold January, February offered only minimal relief. The average temperature was over 4 degrees below normal with three days remaining below freezing all day, however no temperature records were broken. There were multiple instances of light wintry weather during the month, but only one day with measurable sleet/snow. Overall, precipitation…
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January 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy

February 7, 2014

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Erik Proseus

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accuracy, climate data

January Recap No one would argue that January was unusually cold, marked by multiple intrusions of polar air into the Mid-South. Though not in the top 10, this month was the coldest January since the mid 1980s and 20th coldest in the nearly 140 year recorded history of Memphis. Despite the bitter temperatures, only one…
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