Category: forecast discussion
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As college fans celebrate the arrival of one of the most coveted days of the year – the first Saturday of the college football season – another round of severe weather may be brewing on the horizon. There are at least three games of keen Mid-South interest that could be affected by local weather, so…
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Many questions are being asked about the impacts that the remnants of Hurricane Isaac will have on Mid-South weather as we head into a holiday weekend with plenty of outdoor activities planned. The forecast track of Isaac’s leftovers are shown below. As the storm exits Louisiana this evening, it will move north across west-central AR…
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Mid-South meteorologists have a very challenging week ahead thanks mainly to one very large unknown: the eventual forecast track of what will become Hurricane Isaac in the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-South: Monday-Wednesday For the first half of the week, the forecast is somewhat predictable. Humidity has returned on a southerly fetch of Gulf air, creating…
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A shortwave (or impulse of atmospheric energy) is rotating south around the backside of a large upper level trough over the eastern U.S. mentioned in yesterday’s blog. This wave has combined with heating to force scattered thunderstorms and showers over western portions of the Mid-South and Ozark region. Below is the radar image from…
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The hot stagnant upper level pattern we experienced throughout the summer seems to have taken a backseat to a more progressive one, more typical of early fall. A progressive pattern features passages of ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure ever y few days that bring some variety to our weather. As you’ve…
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After a gorgeous August weekend (what we term a “bonus weekend”) with low humidity and below-normal temperatures, the atmosphere quickly re-energizes in advance of another cold front that will move through the Mid-South on Monday. Wind has shifted around to the south and dewpoints/humidity will increase overnight, setting the stage for possible severe weather in…
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The Mid-South was back in the heat this afternoon as temperatures soared to near the 100-degree mark. Fortunately, low humidity levels still in place following this past Sunday’s cold front helped to prevent conditions from becoming too oppressive. Now, a new cold front is on the approach from the northwest. Its arrival early Friday will…
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A potent cold front is poised to move into the metro Sunday night. This front should have enough upper level support to move all the way through the area into central MS by Tuesday. That will mean a welcome change to our weather pattern – one that features less humid air and slightly cooler temperatures,…
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The Storm Prediction Center, issuer of convective watch boxes and outlooks, has placed northeast AR and western TN under a Slight Risk for severe weather tonight. The primary threat, besides dangerous lightning of course, will be damaging wind, with a slight chance of some hail as well. Tornadoes are not expected. Convective outlook for the…
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Last night’s storms produced an outflow boundary that moved through the city and now stretches across the north MS metro counties, leaving more stable and slightly less humid air over the northern half of the metro. Thunderstorms will likely erupt again later this morning, especially ahead of the outflow, meaning that north MS will have…
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After a lengthy stretch of 100-degree heat and worsening drought, the region got a very helpful respite this past week as a large-scale pattern change brought increased clouds, rain chances, and cooler temperatures. While heavier rainfall was generally localized, and we’re still far off from breaking our severe to extreme drought conditions, the past several…
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It’s the week we’ve all been waiting for… No, not the series finale of American Idol or Super Bowl week. It’s “Heat Relief Week”! For 2 weeks, massive hot high pressure has squashed rain chances and brought eight 100-degree days to the Memphis metro. Drought conditions have become “severe” (by definition) or worse as the last…
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Happy Father’s Day to all of you dads out there! It’s been said that being a father is easy, being a dad is something entirely different… I’m grateful and blessed to get to work every day at being a great DAD! The weather this week is going to cause everyone – dads and all –…
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2:00pm Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire metro until 9pm. The mentioned MCS (area of storms) has moved into northeast AR and will move into northern Tipton Co by 3pm and into the city of Memphis by 4pm, continuing through northwest MS, including DeSoto Co, by 5pm. Damaging wind of…
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The Mid-South has been treated to a nice break from the heat much of this week, with temperatures in the 80s and low humidity, not like typical early June weather in this part of the country! Unfortunately, as you may expect, this nice weather is not made to last. A pattern change taking place over…
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A significant weather pattern shift has taken place across the eastern U.S. as a large upper level low pressure area has set up over southeastern Canada. Initially, this was evident as a very nice cool down the past couple of days as surface high pressure built in behind a strong cold front. Now, “northwest flow”…
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The past couple of days (Tuesday and Wednesday), we’ve discussed the possibility of morning storms today that could “scrub” the atmosphere of instability and greatly reduce our chances of severe weather today. If you have looked outside, you see that that didn’t happen. Here is the setup as of 7am this morning: Weather setup for…
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Wednesday, 8:15pm update: It appears computer models are holding off on any early morning precipitation for the Mid-South. Given the information provided in the blog post immediately below, our confidence is increasing we will see some severe thunderstorms in and around the area beginning anytime after late morning. The most likely time will be during…
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At 11:30am, the Storm Prediction Center added parts of the Memphis metro to their Slight Risk zone for the possibility of severe weather, mainly for damaging wind and hail chances this afternoon. An hour later, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for north and central Mississippi and southeast Arkansas. Convective Outlook – Wednesday, May 30.…
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Memorial Day weekend was just as advertised, and as we have come to expect in the Mid-South – dominated by heat! With temperatures in the lower to mid 90s for the holiday weekend, the only minor relief was that the humidity was not off the charts, so heat index readings didn’t quite reach 100. The…
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