Category: forecast discussion
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A wonderful day is on tap today with sunny skies and warm temperatures. However, southerly winds look to make their return by tomorrow, which means that chances for thunderstorms return as well. Lets take a look at the details. NAM model simulated radar at 7pm Thursday. In this scenario, an initial line of storms during…
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A quick blog post on this fine Friday morning. Cold weather appears to be gone for the spring, though we expect some lows in the 40s to be possible over the next few weeks. Today we’re on the backside of a strong Gulf low pressure system that is bringing rain to the southeast U.S. and…
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Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected overnight into Monday as a large-scale weather system moves through the region, ending the beautiful spring weather for a few days and replacing it with cooler temperatures – perhaps even some morning frost in some outlying areas. The first round of showers and storms is expected this evening after…
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Yoshino cherry blossoms on Cherry Road, courtesy the Memphis Botanic Garden staff. Pleasant spring weather will continue into the weekend with temperatures well into the 70s (perhaps a few 80 degree readings) and gusty southerly wind to 25-30 mph. That southerly wind is increasing moisture and humidity levels. We’ll see evidence of that this weekend…
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UPDATED Thursday, 9:15pm: The Storm Prediction Center has dropped the Moderate Risk, but the entire Mid-South is still in a Slight Risk of severe weather overnight. The prime reason for the Moderate Risk was due to the possibility of supercells late this afternoon and evening that posed a hail/tornado risk. Those are obviously not going…
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A setup favoring multiple rounds of thunderstorms is in place across the region as the Mid-South shifts into severe weather season with calendar changing to April. Let’s start with today. Atmospheric Setup A couple of ingredients are depicted below, the first (dewpoint) indicates plenty of low-level moisture across the southern Plains and Mid-South streaming in…
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We started the week with beautiful spring weather and that looks to continue for the next few days. Highs in the mid 70’s with lows in the lower 60’s can be expected tomorrow and Wednesday. However, springtime also can mean the potential for strong thunderstorms and we’ll see that possibility later this week. By Wednesday…
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6:25pm UPDATE: A Severe T’storm Watch has been issued until 2am for all of northwest MS, including all metro counties, as well as Fayette County in west TN (map below). Shelby County is NOT included in the watch as the cold front has inched down about to I-40 and the risk of severe weather is…
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Following freezing temps metro-wide this morning, nothing near that cold is in the extended forecast that goes into early April. Thus we will assume that winter is finally retreating! Even “well below normal” temperatures at this point will have a hard time reaching 32 degrees assuming we don’t approach it in the next week. So, we…
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We’ve been enjoying beautiful springlike weather lately and this looks to continue with one more fantastic day in store today before the weather begins to make significant changes. We’ll start the weekend out with rain and cloudiness from one cold front before another stronger frontal passage makes for quite a chilly start to the week.…
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After a few lovely days we will be reminded yet again that the cold isn’t quite done yet! However, you’ll be pleased to know that the impending cold front is not of the arctic variety. Enjoy the rest of today as the front plans to make its appearance tomorrow morning and temperatures will struggle to…
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Although this is probably the last thing you want to hear right now, winter weather is possible yet again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. On the bright side this threat is very minimal and we do not expect any major impacts in the Memphis metro area. However, the potential is high enough that we are…
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Meteorological spring begins tomorrow and astronomical spring is only 3 weeks away, but it appears our furry friend Phil may have been on to something a month ago! Another in a seemingly never-ending chain of Arctic outbreaks will push through the Mid-South late this weekend with yet another round of winter weather possible. So far…
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8:00 UPDATE We are receiving lots of reports of sleet and even a little thunder in the area this evening as freezing levels are low and air fairly dry, promoting sleet development. Temps remain in the 40s at this time and will fall into the 30s, but no travel issues are expected this evening due…
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As winter finally begins to back off we see ourselves getting into a weather pattern that presents the threat of severe weather. This is not a huge surprise, because the polar jet stream has the tendency to hang around our area through late winter. Any warm-up that occurs is likely to be a brief and…
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UPDATE 6:35PM: The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the remainder of the metro east of the MS River due to expansion of precipitation heading in our direction and model trends indicating that around an inch of snow will be possible most of the metro starting late tonight and lasting through mid-day tomorrow. An…
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Computer models give, and they take away just as fast. What appeared to be our best shot of accumulating snow is now nothing more than another tease. Yesterday we were looking at models solutions that ranged from 3-5″ snow, with one model printing out up to 9″ of snow (no, we didn’t advertise that then…
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Welcome to the MWN Blog! Let me preface this blog with a simple statement: snow is NOT guaranteed in the time frames that we will be talking about, but there is certainly the possibility for accumulating snowfall on multiple occasions in the next week. Analysis Now, based on the latest model guidance, there is a…
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We’ve mentioned on social media that there are perhaps multiple scenarios in the coming week in which winter weather is possible. The first of those will be Sunday. We’ll take a look at that in just a moment, but first what to expect between now and then. Leading into Sunday, a very warm day is…
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Overview: After a much colder than average January for the Memphis metro we’ll finally start to see a warmer pattern take shape for the next few days. A building ridge to our east will help bring warmer, moist air into the region into this weekend. As you can probably expect, with any warm flow coming…
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