Category: forecast discussion
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To start your week off, we’re going to focus on weather through Halloween. The big picture is increasing moisture with warmer temps each day, then a frontal passage and precipitation for Halloween. Get the details below. Visible Satellite Imagery at 1402 UTC (9:02 AM CDT) We started this morning off with a large area of…
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With the issuance of our first Freeze Warning of the fall (for Fayette and Tipton Counties) and Frost Advisory for the rest of the metro except Tunica County, it’s a good time to provide some meteorological insight on why these freezes are able to occur and remind you to protect any tender vegetation. It’s not…
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Cool air has settled in the past couple days resulting in below average temperatures in the Mid-South. How that cool air will change is the topic of discussion this weekend and heading into next week. Simply put, the atmosphere is having trouble deciding on whether it wants to get warmer or colder. Or perhaps more…
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As always we’ll begin the blog with a synopsis of current weather. Lets start with a visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave in the eastern Pacific Ocean: Visible Satellite Image of Tropical Storm Octave at 14Z (7AM Pacific) But wait, isn’t this a blog for Memphis weather?! Why in the world do we care…
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Synopsis Low level clouds have been in the picture for several days now and we’ll be dealing with a few again this morning. In fact cloud cover (and even a few showers) can be expected for much of Saturday as well due to an approaching weak cold front. However, highs in the mid 80’s with…
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Synopsis After an absolutely gorgeous Monday I’m pleased to inform you fall will continue across the Mid-South for at least the next few days. The drier air streaming in from the north is most welcome and I find that to be a bigger relief than the cooler temperatures themselves. Not too much to talk about…
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As we discussed a couple of days ago, confidence in the weekend forecast has been lower than we like to see it, mainly due to Tropical Storm Karen moving into the Gulf Coast region as a cold front pushes through the Mid-South. The overall scenario is starting to come into focus however, and it appears…
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So far, the forecasted “active” 2013 tropical season has been a dud with only one storm (Andrea) having much of any effect on the U.S. mainland and most storms that form struggling to survive. Only two storms have managed to attain hurricane status, one of which stayed far out to sea (Humberto) and one which…
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Synopsis Another Monday, another deck of stratus across the Mid-South. There seems to have been a lot of these overcast mornings lately, accompanied today by patchy fog and light showers. This low-level moisture looks to slowly decrease from top to bottom but will likely linger in the lowest levels through tonight. This will keep today’s…
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Synopsis Weather will be quite similar to the previous couple of days to start the weekend. We are sitting under a ridge of high pressure between two troughs of low pressure, the resulting weather is warm, fairly humid and overall dry. This will start to change a bit Sunday when enough upper-level energy and uplift…
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Synopsis It was a bit chilly this morning with temperatures dipping into the 50’s with plenty of dry air in the region. This is all due to the long-wave trough that made its way through the region a few days ago. The main feature to focus on in the upcoming forecast is a short-wave trough…
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[EP: Though this discussion is a little more technical than our typical blog, it does highlight the different atmospheric processes that will promote rain and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. William is obviously getting a good grasp of the atmosphere in his meteorology classes! For the official MWN Forecast, click here.] Synopsis A unique set…
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Synopsis Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front extending through the metro pushing south. It is hard to call this boundary a cold front due to the fact that it is not bringing cold air with it at all. The main effect this boundary will have on the metro will be the increase…
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Synopsis Another hot and muggy day across the Mid-South with thunderstorms dotting the area. Currently a cold front situated to our north will make its way south through the area tonight, bringing with it a major change in our weather. Above average temperatures for this time of year will quickly change to below average temperatures…
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[EP: Today, MWN intern William looks at the potential for precip around the metro this afternoon using the HRRR model and a well-conceptualized and written discussion.] Gonna give short term forecasting a shot this morning with the possibility of storms this afternoon using the 11Z HRRR as my primary analysis tool. Lets start off with…
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Synopsis Clouds are hanging around this morning due to weak warm air advection above the surface. [EP: an outflow from earlier thunderstorms east of the area has sparked scattered showers in the metro late this morning, which should wane by early afternoon]. Temperatures have been above average for September [EP: the hottest day of the…
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Synopsis A weak frontal boundary stalled over the Mid-South has kept some clouds over us this morning with bearable temperatures and relatively low humidity. That looks to change as a ridge of high pressure dominates with above average temperatures returning over the weekend. Analysis Visible satellite imagery at 9:15am CDT showing a band of clouds…
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Synopsis After last week’s heat and a couple of days of scattered storms more seasonable weather looks to be on tap for the upcoming week. This is thanks to a cold front which has shifted the wind from southerly to northerly, ushering in drier, slightly cooler air into the Mid-South. Analysis Above is a surface…
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Synopsis After a hot and sunny work week we’ll continue to deal with Mid-South heat as a hotter than average start to meteorological fall begins this weekend. However, the overall weather pattern is certainly more interesting than the previous week, with chances for rain entering the forecast. This potentially wet weather could also bring some…
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As most of our readers know, MemphisWeather.net is staffed by yours truly (meteorologist and founder Erik Proseus) as well as social media interns who assist in nowcasting on our social media platforms and occasionally blog on local weather patterns. Currently, the interns are two Mississippi State University graduate students in Meteorology: William Churchill and Patrick…
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